DOWNING OF RUSSIAN JET ADDS TO 'TOXIC COCKTAIL' IN THE REGION, EXPERTS SAY
Turkey
shooting down a Russian jet on Tuesday morning is just proof of the
'toxic cocktail' of dangers in the region which could erupt into crisis
with devastating effect, an expert has warned.
Middle
East expert Shashank Joshi, from the Royal United Services Institute,
said the skies over Syria and Turkey are an 'incredibly crowded
airspace', with planes from both nations and members of the US-led
coalition against IS - including the UK - operating.
Turkey,
a Nato member, has already complained about Russian incursions into its
skies and last month the alliance condemned the 'unacceptable
violations of Turkish airspace by Russian combat aircraft'.
Mr
Joshi said: 'The situation is dangerous because Russia is quite
probably deliberately probing Turkish airspace both for military reasons
and political reasons.'
The
Russians will be testing the military responses of the Nato member, but
also carrying out the same 'psychological intimidation' tactics used in
the Baltic and North Atlantic, he suggested.
The
combination of the crowded airspace, Russian probing tactics and the
diplomatic tensions create a 'real toxic cocktail that can easily erupt
into crisis', he warned.
Ankara
will be 'furious' at the incursion and Russia can expect Nato to strike
a 'tough' note, but behind the scenes there will be intense diplomatic
efforts to calm tensions.
But if Moscow responds in a provocative way, there is a risk of the crisis escalating.
Mr
Joshi warned: 'These things always proceed in a very unpredictable
fashion. We have seen how conflicts can begin when there are large
alliances.'
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